The top players at their respective positions rarely ever hit free agency, and rightfully so. The goal for an NFL team is to build and win. Hard to do that if you let your best players walk. This is why not only do we rarely ever see the best players hit free agency, they tend to spend their entire careers with one team, maybe two. This will be no different in the upcoming free agency. Let’s take a look at the top 3 wide receiver free agents in 2021 and why they will most likely be tagged or signed long term.
Allen Robinson
Without a doubt, Allen Robinson is the best possible free agent wide receiver. In fact, he is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, period. Somehow Allen Robinson made it all the way to the 61st pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, where he was drafted by the Jaguars. I bet many teams would like a mulligan on that. In 2017, his final year of his rookie contract, he missed the season due to injury. That could have been the major contributing factor as to why the Jaguars let Robinson walk, but now they’d agree that was a big mistake. He had a great season in 2015, but was solid his rookie season and in 2016. However, since joining the Bears, he has easily been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Especially 2019 and last season in 2020, when he received a career high PFF rank of 88.4. He has outstanding hands and unbelievable awareness, always making ridiculous catches by pinpointing the ball on just about every throw, regardless of where the ball is thrown. Robinson has been in the NFL 7 seasons and will only be 28 come next season. He is everything a team would want in a WR1, which is why he is expected to get $20+M a season on the open market. Unfortunately, it looks like he will never make it there. Rumors are the Bears will tag him, which is smart on their end. He will be invaluable to whoever is their QB next season (maybe Sam Darnold!). His tag is expected to cost around $18M and the Bears are projected as of now to have -$1.8M in cap space, so they have some roster gymnastics they have to do. They could always tag him and then try to trade him. That would be smart for the Bears, as it always smart to try and acquire more draft picks. Just ask Joe Douglas. However, there are a few big money players on the Bears that haven’t been as good as the money they are making. Moving on from them could easily free up enough cap room to tag and keep Allen Robinson. Cornerback Kyle Fuller has not been good the past 2 seasons, cutting him would free up $20M with dead money of $9M. $6M if they wait until after June 1st. Akiem Hicks will turn 32 next season. He has been okay, but only has 5 sacks over the last 2 seasons. Cutting him frees up $12M with only $1.5M dead money. There are a few others as well that could be cap casualties, but the point is if the Bears really want to retain and tag Allen Robinson, they definitely can. I think they will.
Chris Godwin
I literally see a zero percent chance Chris Godwin hits free agency. Chris Godwin is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you know the team that just won the Super Bowl. Godwin played a vital role in the Buccanners success this past season, and has been a major factor in their success every season since he was drafted by them amazingly at 84th overall. Godwin is a testament to great talent being available throughout the NFL Draft, you just need to be able to find and/or cultivate it. Godwin will be just 25 years old come next season. He is in the prime of his career and could even get better than he already is. When the Buccaneers signed Tom Brady, they made a statement. They felt they were just a few pieces and a elite QB away from winning a Super Bowl. Turns out they were right. Tom Brady has made no indication that he plans to retire, which means the Buccaneers are going to try and run it back again. There is no way they let their best wide receiver in the prime of his career and one of Tom Brady’s top and favorite targets walk. It’s just not happening. Godwin was second behind Mike Evans in receiving yards for the Bucs this past season, but he still had a higher PFF grade than Evans. His 2020 PFF of 79.7 is actually the lowest of his career, which is damn impressive. In 2019 Godwin had over 1300 yds & 9 TDs with a PFF grade of 90.7. The Bucs are hoping he can be even better than he was last season and have another 2019 season in 2021. The Buccaneers also have a current projected cap room of $28M and that could get even larger with some cuts. Not only could Godwin get tagged, there is a high chance they pay the man and lock him down long term. Again, I see no possibility where he is available.
Kenny Golladay
Both Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin were not top picks in their respective drafts. Robinson went in the 2nd, Godwin went in the 3rd. Golladay also was a later pick, and the latest of all three. Golladay was picked 96th in the 2017 NFL Draft, just 12 picks behind Godwin. Pretty incredible these top 3 guys all went as late as they did. Golladay had a pretty pedestrian season in 2017, but followed that by two monster years. The following 2 seasons Golladay put up 2,253 yards, over 15 yards per catch, and 16 TDs. He looked every bit the part of a WR1. However, in 2020 he got hurt cutting his season down to 5 games. He put up good numbers in those games though, averaged about 17 yards per catch, and was rated highly until his injury. The Detroit Lions need a true WR1, and if Golladay can stay healthy he is exactly that. Since being hurt Golladay has stated he wants to stay in Detroit where he was drafted. He said he likes the city and is a loyal person. He feels the Lions believed in him when they drafted him late. Now the Lions also have negative cap room, but like the Bears, there are always players that can be cut to make room. I believe the Lions want to retain Golladay, especially since they just traded for Jared Goff and would like Golladay to be his primary receiver. Golladay will either be signed long term or tagged. I don’t think any of these 3 guys hit free agency, but you never know.