Make a list of the Jets elite or top of the league edge rushers over the last 2 decades. That list should depress you, as there are only 2 names on it. 20 years, 2 names. 1 really if you go off the definition of “elite”: John Abraham. Calvin Pace was in my opinion a very good and underappreciated edge rusher, but he was not elite. That’s it, there’s your list. Wonder why that’s it? It’s not hard to grasp. John Abraham was the Jets 13th overall pick in 2000. The super intelligent Jets decide to only keep him around for 6 years of his 13 year career. He was also much better in his 7 years with Atlanta then he was in his 6 years with us. The Jets didn’t draft Calvin Pace, but he was drafted 18th overall by the Cardinals in 2003. If you’re noticing a pattern, then you’re more intelligent than the majority of prior Jets GMs. For some reason since the Jets drafted Abraham 13th in 2000, they have only drafted 1 edge rusher higher than the 3rd round. In 20 years! Sure they took a few linebackers with higher picks like Bryan Thomas and Jonathan Vilma, but not true edge rushers. Took many defensive lineman since as well. The only true edge rusher was supposed to be Vernon Gholston, and we all know how that went…
Joe Douglas proved in his first draft that he not only understands need and value, he will draft players at positions previously neglected for far too long by prior Jets GMs. He took the Jets first offensive lineman in the first round since D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold back in 2006. Two of the staples of the Jets offensive line for over a decade, and for some reason only Joe Douglas was able to realize this connection. Same with a wide receiver high in Denzel Mims. By using this same logic, it stands to reason Joe Douglas will not only address edge rusher in the next NFL Draft, but address it high. However, with so many other neglected positions and positions of need for the Jets, he may choose to go other routes, and as he’s pointed out free agency is for supplementation, and he will sign top players if they are deserving of their money and fill a need. Let’s take a look at the current best edge rushers that are set to be available when free agency begins in a week next Wednesday.
Shaq Barrett
Shaq Barrett went undrafted in 2014. I bet a lot of NFL teams would like to go back and correct that. Barrett played 4 years for the Denver Broncos, and has spent the last 2 seasons on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While with the Broncos, Barrett didn’t put up huge numbers, but he consistently graded out high by PFF every season since 2015. For example, in 2016 he only had 1.5 sacks, but received a PFF grade of 84. In 2017, only 4 sacks, but PFF of 82.6. This shows that even though Barrett wasn’t always putting up big numbers, he was always playing at a high level and a top edge rusher. Finally, in 2019 with his new team, his hard work and top level of play payed off. He ended 2019 on the Buccaneers with 19.5 sacks, the most in the entire NFL. He also had 19 tackles for loss, 2nd in the entire NFL only behind Aaron Donald. In 2020 he had 8 sacks and 11 tackles for loss, but with a Super Bowl ring I bet he’s even happier than he was in 2019.
Tom Brady will be running it back another season, maybe for the last time, and the Buccaneers are looking to repeat. That being the case it is understandable they decided to franchise tag Chris Godwin and not Barrett. Godwin is Brady’s best weapon. Even though he had less yards than Evans in 2020 he was the better receiver and graded higher, and in 2019 he was one of the best wide receivers in the entire league. Now the Buccaneers say they want to sign Barrett long term, which with him being one of the best edge rushers in the entire NFL makes a lot of sense. However, by not tagging him, especially if they cannot come to a deal before free agency begins, obviously the best available edge rusher will have a lot of suitors. He won’t come cheap, but Douglas has said when “opportunity meets value” he will strike and pay. This is why I believe he will be very aggressive in trying to acquire Joe Thuney, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he offers big money to Barrett as well. Finally getting the Jets a player they’ve long and desperately needed.
Bud Dupree
In exact opposite fashion of undrafted Barrett, Bud Dupree was the 22nd overall pick in the 2015 draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers and he has spent his entire 6 year career there. He went so high because he was outstanding in college and many saw him as the next elite edge rusher in the NFL. Unfortunately Dupree did not live up to that status, at first. From 2015-2018 Bud Dupree never had more than 6 sacks a season and graded from average to below average every one of those seasons. Many before 2019 though Dupree might be a bust and nothing more than a below average player who is sometimes average. However, something happened in 2019 and Dupree figured it out and big time. Since 2019, Dupree has 19.5 sacks and 24 tackles for loss. Granted Barrett did just about that in 2019 alone so he is by far the best available option, but Dupree seems over the last 2 seasons to have finally figured it out. He shouldn’t be as expensive as Barrett either, especially since he is coming off a torn ACL he suffered in December.
Dupree is much larger than Barrett which makes many think he will succeed better as a 4-3 DE, but to me, top talent is top talent. Elite is elite. Barrett will succeed no matter where he lines up, no matter how he rushes the quarterback, and by no means is he small at 250 lbs. Dupree is about 270. Technically thanks to Joe Douglas the Jets have more than enough money to sign both of these men, and the idea of them both being Jets next year causes my mind to explode into a billion pieces with the endless potential and possibilities, but if we had to choose one, I’d take Barrett.
Romeo Okwara
Like Barrett, Romeo Okwara went undrafted. These 2 men are testaments to the ability to find talent throughout the draft, even after it. Also one of the reasons I am so high on Bryce Huff and his potential. Okwara played 2 seasons with the Giants, but was unproductive and a non-factor. He even got hurt and missed a good amount of 2017. Due to this the Giants cut him, and I wanted the Jets to acquire him off of waivers SO BAD! What could have been…I had really liked what I saw from him at Notre Dame, especially in 2015 when he had 9 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss. But alas, Mike Maccagnan was our GM, and intelligence was not his forte, so it was not meant to be. Okwara was picked up via waivers by the Detriot Lions, who now used him as a 4-3 DE as opposed to more of a 3-4 OLB like the Giants had. This awoke the beast within Okwara, and since joining the Lions in 2018 he has been a very productive player. Not elite or top of the league, but very productive. He had 7.5 sacks and 8 tackles for loss in 2018. He had a very pedestrian 2019, but had his best season of his career in 2020 with 10 sacks and 11 tackles for loss. As a talented 4-3 DE which is what the Jets will be transitioning to under Robert Saleh, Okwara should get a real look from Joe Douglas. Also, due to his good but not great production, he will be the least expensive option compared to Dupree and especially Barrett.
Carl Lawson
Carl Lawson was the 116th pick of the Cincinnati Bengals in 2017. An aggressive edge rusher with a great motor, Lawson has had productive seasons for the Bengals but never more than 8.5 sacks in his rookie season. Since then, he has had 11.5 over 3 seasons. Does he need a change of scenery to break out and find the production he found in his rookie season? Many think so, but I’m not sure. Carl Lawson had 8.5 sacks and 8 tackles for loss in his rookie season of 2017, but he had a horrible PFF grade of 64.8. In 2018 he got injured and only played 7 games. He had 1 sack and 1 tackle for loss on the season. Consistency is a huge problem for me with Lawson. In that limited 2018 season, he received a PFF grade of 79.4, the highest of his career. Then 55.5 in 2019, and 76.3 in 2020. If Lawson is not very expensive I would take a flier on him, otherwise I’d rather any of the other above options as well address edge in draft.
Trey Hendrickson
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Trey Hendrickson was drafted 103rd overall by the New Orleans Saints in 2017. Like Dupree, he took a few years to come on and find his own, but when he did, he dominated. From 2017 to 2019 he had just 6.5 sacks and 6 tackles for loss. He did miss all but 5 games in 2018 and literally did nothing. However, in 2020 he exploded onto the scene and was the most productive edge rusher in the NFL. In 2020 Hendrickson had 13.5 sacks which was tied for 2nd in the entire NFL with Aaron Donald. TJ Watt was 1st with 15. Hendrickson had 12 tackles for loss in 2020 as well. Hendrickson only played 558 snaps in 2020, which is about 53%. At first I was blown away with Hendrickson’s high production in such limited play and was excited about how he would do in a full time role. However, upon further examining the film of Hendrickson since I was very high on him earlier in the process, I noticed a decent amount of his sacks were coverage sacks, and he doesn’t seem to have a very extensive pass rushing tree. As an edge rusher with the most sacks of all free agents in 2020, Hendrickson will be paid handsomely by somebody, and my fear is us overpaying him and him being just an average edge rusher.
Verdict
I am very hesitant on Lawson and Hendrickson. I would not sign either unless they do not cost too much. Barrett has consistently been a top edge rusher in the NFL since 2015, as I showed even when his numbers didn’t support that, but since joining the Buccaneers the numbers have supported that very much. Barrett will without a doubt be paid the most of any of these guys, but he is deserving of it, a formula Joe Douglas approves of. With a lot of money to spend, I would aggressively pursue Barrett, and if the Jets miss out I’d then pursue Dupree or Okwara. If Jets can get 2 of those guys, especially if one of them is Barrett, the Jets will have something they haven’t had since John Abraham: top to elite edge production.